2 May 2012

My 2012 local election predictions

These are my predictions for the English local elections, mayoral referendums and London mayoral elections tomorrow - May 3 2012.

1) Ken will lose because the outer London rich vote is more likely to turn out than the inner London vote. Outer London is doing very well, thanks, and doesn’t care too much about the fares rising and poor being carted off elsewhere because they don’t like the oiks. They want London to be their playground and Boris is the man to give it to them and, just to boot, he is a spiffing good laugh on the telly, so they’ll all trot off to the polling station after the day spent at the bank/accountants/trust fund. This trend will continue for a generation and Labour will have trouble winning in London again for a long time.

2) Labour will win back a huge number of council seats up for election north of the Watford Gap, and not an insignificant number south of it. This will mainly be at the expense of Lib Dems, but there will be some fairly big municipal Tory heads rolling too. However, the double edged sword for Miliband is that it will be Labour authorities having to dish out the worst of the Tory cuts in the coming two years, particularly in the north. For that reason Cameron and Clegg will care not a jot.

3) The Tory polling vote is stubbornly at around 33 per cent and the share of the vote will reflect this. In the south east and south west I suspect little much will change, although we will probably see some Tory gains away from the Lib Dems.

4) The straight-up fascist parties (BNP, NF etc) are pretty much a busted flush electorally speaking at present and will barely register. The crypto-fascists in UKIP and English Dems may pull some surprises though, but only in limited numbers. Greens similarly will pull a few surprises. Respect may get some seats in Bradford.

4) Most cities voting on the mayoral referendum will reject it on the basis they hate all politicians. The actual mayoral elections there are in Liverpool etc…will probably be won by Labour.

5) The Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC) vote will, regardless of the numbers/percentages involved and how they compare to the previous far-left forays into elections, be declared as a “major breakthrough” in the struggle for a new workers party. I hope Dave Nellist retains his seat, but I predict now they will struggle to retain their deposits anywhere outside of Coventry.


Wladyslaw Mejka said...

No disagreement with that analysis, but wondering why no analysis beyond England?

JohnjoOnHumber said...

An interesting analysis, but I think you'll find that no deposit is required to stand in local government elections.

Loz said...

Hi guys

Sorry I missed these comments. I never imagined people would actually read my blog!

Wladyslaw - as I cover England for my job and rarely even visit Scotland or Wales, I only stick to what I know!

John - you are, of course, correct about deposits for council elections. However in parliamentary terms to keep your deposit you are expected to reach 5% and in this regard I suppose I was just suggesting TUSC candidates would struggle to even manage that in the wards they stood in. As the results show, I wan't too far wrong on that score!